Holistic modeling to support agroforestry and reforestation in Costa Rica

We are very happy to announce a new paper by our alumni Leonie Netter. The paper is based on her MSc Thesis and was written together with her supervisors Prof. Dr. Eike Luedeling and Dr. Cory Whitney. The work provides an innovative Decision Analysis approach to deciding on voluntary standards for carbon offsetting (Netter et al. 2022). The authors develop and apply a comprehensive simulation to support certification decisions in an agroforestry and a reforestation project in Costa Rica. By involving stakeholders in the co-development of their models the authors were able to generate realistic simulations and provide guidance on the prospective net benefits of certification. Through the holistic modeling approaches the authors identified critical uncertainties and research priorities but determined overall that both the agroforestry and reforestation options would likely have a positive return on investment. Well-developed management and replanting schemes were considered to be a central aspect for the success of carbon offset certification for reforestation projects. The paper showcases a practice-oriented, innovative approach to assessing the possible return on investment, but also the risks of certification with a voluntary carbon offset label for individual projects. The Decision Analysis approaches described in the paper can help to improve the process of decision making under uncertainty and should be widely adopted for evaluating the potential impacts of certification.

Netter, Leonie, Eike Luedeling, and Cory Whitney. “Agroforestry and Reforestation with the Gold Standard-Decision Analysis of a Voluntary Carbon Offset Label.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 27, no. 2 (February 2022): 17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09992-z.