Many fruit and nut crops require cold temperatures in winter to break dormancy. Quantifying this chilling requirement and selecting appropriate cultivars for the climate of a growing region is crucial for successful cultivation of such crops. Several models exist to quantify winter chill, and each growing region uses a model that has been shown to perform well under local climatic conditions. We tested the sensitivity of four commonly used chilling models to projected climatic change likely to affect fruit and nut production in the near future.